Daily Potomac flow and demand update (Saturday, 2023-09-23)

Submitted by admin1 on Sat, 09/23/2023 - 12:20

Situational Awareness (Saturday, 2023-09-23):
The U.S. Geological Survey gage at Point of Rocks reports current flow at 1600 cfs (1034 MGD) and shows an upward trend. Projections from the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) predict 0.8 inches of rainfall in the next 24 hours. Over the next three days, an average basin rainfall of 1.7 inches is anticipated, with a weeklong total forecasted to reach approximately 2 inches.

Recent basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) gridded multisensor precipitation estimates)
Yesterday's area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0 (inches)
Past 3-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0 (inches)
Past 7-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.71 (inches)

Daily flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2023-09-22: 995 MGD (1540 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2023-09-23: 1028 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1590 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2023-09-22: 1053 MGD (1630 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2023-09-23: 1034 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1600 cfs)

Yesterday's Washington metropolitan area Potomac River withdrawals and discharges (2023-09-22):
Fairfax Water Corbalis withdrawal - Potomac: 98 MGD
WSSC Water Potomac withdrawal: 139 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Great Falls: 145 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Little Falls: 0 MGD
Loudoun Water withdrawal: 6 MGD
Loudoun Water Broad Run discharge: 6 MGD
Total Potomac withdrawal: 388 MGD
Total net Potomac withdrawal: 382 MGD

Loudoun Water Potomac River (PR) flow values for drought operations protocol (based on yesterday's flows):
QPR: 1630 cfs
QPR, obs: 1630 cfs
QPR, WS: 0 cfs

Note to Loudoun Water: See NWS ensemble flow forecasts (HEFS, GEFS, NAEFS) for Point of Rocks flow for the next 7 days – see https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs_marfc?id=PORM2&model=NAEFS.

Note: Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks has dropped below the low-flow threshold of 2,000 cfs. When this occurs, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982, CO-OP begins daily monitoring and reporting of Potomac flows and withdrawals on behalf of the CO-OP suppliers, Fairfax Water, Washington Aqueduct, and WSSC Water. Suppliers can review data at CO-OP's Data Portal at www.icprbcoop.org. Reports formatted in approved templates should be submitted by email to coop@icprb.org by 8:00 am for automated processing. Published monitoring reports are at http://icprbcoop.org/products/monitoring-reports.

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