Situational Awareness (Tuesday, 2024-07-09)
The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center expects dry conditions through Tuesday, with a chance of rain from Beryl's remnants later in the week. Predictions indicate a basin average of 0 inches of rain in the next 24 hours, 0.5 inches over the next 3 days, and about 1.2 inches for the week.
Special Conditions
The whitewater release from Savage Reservoir last Sunday (2024-07-07) is currently flowing between the USGS streamflow gages on the Potomac River at Paw Paw and Hancock.
Recent basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) gridded multisensor precipitation estimates)
Yesterday's area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.01 (inches)
Past 3-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.02 (inches)
Past 7-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.27 (inches)
Daily flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2024-07-08: 1008 MGD (1560 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2024-07-09: 918 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1420 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2024-07-08: 1183 MGD (1830 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2024-07-09: 1150 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1780 cfs)
Yesterday's estimated daily flows:
Great Falls estimated flow 2024-07-08: 1175 MGD (1818 cfs)
Note: Estimated flow below Great Falls intake is flow at Little Falls plus Little Falls water supply withdrawal.
Yesterday's Washington metropolitan area Potomac River withdrawals and discharges (2024-07-08):
Fairfax Water Corbalis withdrawal - Potomac: 149 MGD
WSSC Water Potomac withdrawal: 139 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Great Falls: 0 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Little Falls: 167 MGD
Loudoun Water withdrawal: 14 MGD
Loudoun Water Broad Run discharge: 4 MGD
Total Potomac withdrawal: 469 MGD
Total net Potomac withdrawal: 464 MGD
Loudoun Water Potomac River (PR) flow values for drought operations protocol (based on yesterday's flows):
QPR: 1830 cfs
QPR, obs: 1830 cfs
QPR, WS: 0 cfs
Note to Loudoun Water: See NWS ensemble flow forecasts (HEFS, GEFS, NAEFS) for Point of Rocks flow for the next 7 days – https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs_marfc?id=PORM2&model=NAEFS. See US Army Corps of Engineers Potomac River Basin page for observed releases from Savage and Jennings Randolph reservoirs - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/poto.html; See US Army Corps of Engineers North Branch Potomac River and Savage River page for scheduled releases - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/northBranch.html.
Note: Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks has dropped below the low-flow threshold of 2,000 cfs. When this occurs, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982, CO-OP begins daily monitoring and reporting of Potomac flows and withdrawals on behalf of the CO-OP suppliers, Fairfax Water, Washington Aqueduct, and WSSC Water. Suppliers can review data at CO-OP's Data Portal at www.icprbcoop.org. Reports formatted in approved templates should be submitted by email to coop@icprb.org by 8:00 am for automated processing. Published monitoring reports are at http://icprbcoop.org/products/monitoring-reports.