Situational Awareness (Thursday, 2024-07-25)
The recent rain has provided temporary relief to low river flows. Yesterday, flow at the Point of Rocks gage rose above 2000 cfs before receding and is currently at about 1840 cfs. Flow at the Little Falls gage has begun to rise and is expected to recede over the coming days. Limited rain is in the forecast. A basin average rainfall of about 0.4 inches is expected over the next 7 days, with 0.1 inches anticipated over the next 3 days.
Special Conditions
None
Recent basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) gridded multisensor precipitation estimates)
Yesterday's area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.13 (inches)
Past 3-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.8 (inches)
Past 7-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 1.04 (inches)
Daily flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2024-07-24: 763 MGD (1180 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2024-07-25: 1428 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (2210 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2024-07-24: 1312 MGD (2030 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2024-07-25: 1189 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1840 cfs)
Yesterday's estimated daily flows:
Great Falls estimated flow 2024-07-24: 823 MGD (1273 cfs)
Note: Estimated flow below Great Falls intake is flow at Little Falls plus Little Falls water supply withdrawal.
Yesterday's Washington metropolitan area Potomac River withdrawals and discharges (2024-07-24):
Fairfax Water Corbalis withdrawal - Potomac: 115 MGD
WSSC Water Potomac withdrawal: 148 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Great Falls: 91 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Little Falls: 60 MGD
Loudoun Water withdrawal: 12 MGD
Loudoun Water Broad Run discharge: 5 MGD
Total Potomac withdrawal: 425 MGD
Total net Potomac withdrawal: 420 MGD
Loudoun Water Potomac River (PR) flow values for drought operations protocol (based on yesterday's flows):
QPR: 2030 cfs
QPR, obs: 2030 cfs
QPR, WS: 0 cfs
Note to Loudoun Water: See NWS ensemble flow forecasts (HEFS, GEFS, NAEFS) for Point of Rocks flow for the next 7 days – https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs_marfc?id=PORM2&model=NAEFS. See US Army Corps of Engineers Potomac River Basin page for observed releases from Savage and Jennings Randolph reservoirs - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/poto.html; See US Army Corps of Engineers North Branch Potomac River and Savage River page for scheduled releases - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/northBranch.html.
Note: Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks has dropped below the low-flow threshold of 2,000 cfs. When this occurs, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982, CO-OP begins daily monitoring and reporting of Potomac flows and withdrawals on behalf of the CO-OP suppliers, Fairfax Water, Washington Aqueduct, and WSSC Water. Suppliers can review data at CO-OP's Data Portal at www.icprbcoop.org. Reports formatted in approved templates should be submitted by email to coop@icprb.org by 8:00 am for automated processing. Published monitoring reports are at http://icprbcoop.org/products/monitoring-reports.