Situational Awareness (Saturday, 2024-09-14)
According to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center predictions, no rain is expected over the next 3 days. The week-long outlook anticipates approximately 0.7 inches of rainfall across the basin.
Special Conditions
The bathymetric surveys conducted at Potomac Dam No. 4 on September 12th continue to affect river flow at the Point of Rocks gage. River flow is expected to recover over the next day.
Recent basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) gridded multisensor precipitation estimates)
Yesterday's area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0 (inches)
Past 3-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0 (inches)
Past 7-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: 0.07 (inches)
Daily flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2024-09-13: 1066 MGD (1650 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2024-09-14: 1118 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1730 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2024-09-13: 1170 MGD (1810 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2024-09-14: 931 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (1440 cfs)
Yesterday's estimated daily flows:
Great Falls estimated flow 2024-09-13: 1115 MGD (1725 cfs)
Note: Estimated flow below Great Falls intake is flow at Little Falls plus Little Falls water supply withdrawal.
Yesterday's Washington metropolitan area Potomac River withdrawals and discharges (2024-09-13):
Fairfax Water Corbalis withdrawal - Potomac: 123 MGD
WSSC Water Potomac withdrawal: 117 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Great Falls: 94 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Little Falls: 49 MGD
Loudoun Water withdrawal: 13 MGD
Loudoun Water Broad Run discharge: 7 MGD
Total Potomac withdrawal: 396 MGD
Total net Potomac withdrawal: 388 MGD
Loudoun Water Potomac River (PR) flow values for drought operations protocol (based on yesterday's flows):
QPR: 1810 cfs
QPR, obs: 1810 cfs
QPR, WS: 0 cfs
Note to Loudoun Water: See NWS ensemble flow forecasts (HEFS, GEFS, NAEFS) for Point of Rocks flow for the next 7 days – https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs_marfc?id=PORM2&model=NAEFS. See US Army Corps of Engineers Potomac River Basin page for observed releases from Savage and Jennings Randolph reservoirs - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/poto.html; See US Army Corps of Engineers North Branch Potomac River and Savage River page for scheduled releases - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/northBranch.html.
Note: Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks has dropped below the low-flow threshold of 2,000 cfs. When this occurs, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982, CO-OP begins daily monitoring and reporting of Potomac flows and withdrawals on behalf of the CO-OP suppliers, Fairfax Water, Washington Aqueduct, and WSSC Water. Suppliers can review data at CO-OP's Data Portal at www.icprbcoop.org. Reports formatted in approved templates should be submitted by email to coop@icprb.org by 8:00 am for automated processing. Published monitoring reports are at http://icprbcoop.org/products/monitoring-reports.