Situational Awareness (Monday, 2024-11-18)
While the daily average flow at Point of Rocks has just crossed the 2000 cfs drought monitoring threshold (at 2020 cfs), ICPRB’s CO-OP Section will continue daily monitoring for the time being to ensure that the flow at Point of Rocks will remain above said threshold for an extended period of time. No appreciable rainfall is expected in the basin over the next 24 hours according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center predictions. Over the next 3 days, the average basin rainfall may be around 0.25 inches.
Special Conditions
None
Recent basin-wide average precipitation (above Little Falls):
(based on CO-OP's Low Flow Forecast System analysis of Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) gridded multisensor precipitation estimates)
Yesterday's area-weighted average basin precipitation: approximately 0.0 (inches)
Past 3-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: approximately 0.25 (inches)
Past 7-day cumulative area-weighted average basin precipitation: approximately 0.5 (inches)
Daily flows:
Little Falls gage flow 2024-11-17: 1306 MGD (2020 cfs)
Little Falls gage flow 2024-11-18: 1338 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (2070 cfs)
Note: Gage flow at Little Falls is measured after water supply withdrawals.
Point of Rocks flow 2024-11-17: 1325 MGD (2050 cfs)
Point of Rocks flow 2024-11-18: 1325 MGD (est., based on recently available real-time data) (2050 cfs)
Yesterday's estimated daily flows:
Great Falls estimated flow 2024-11-17: 1334 MGD (2065 cfs)
Note: Estimated flow below Great Falls intake is flow at Little Falls plus Little Falls water supply withdrawal.
Yesterday's Washington metropolitan area Potomac River withdrawals and discharges (2024-11-17):
Fairfax Water Corbalis withdrawal - Potomac: 85 MGD
WSSC Water Potomac withdrawal: 129 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Great Falls: 88 MGD
Washington Aqueduct withdrawal - Little Falls: 28 MGD
Loudoun Water withdrawal: 10 MGD
Loudoun Water Broad Run discharge: 8 MGD
Total Potomac withdrawal: 341 MGD
Total net Potomac withdrawal: 333 MGD
Loudoun Water Potomac River (PR) flow values for drought operations protocol (based on yesterday's flows):
QPR: 2050 cfs
QPR, obs: 2050 cfs
QPR, WS: 0 cfs
Note to Loudoun Water: See NWS ensemble flow forecasts (HEFS, GEFS, NAEFS) for Point of Rocks flow for the next 7 days – https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs_marfc?id=PORM2&model=NAEFS. See US Army Corps of Engineers Potomac River Basin page for observed releases from Savage and Jennings Randolph reservoirs - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/poto.html; See US Army Corps of Engineers North Branch Potomac River and Savage River page for scheduled releases - https://www.nab-wc.usace.army.mil/nab/northBranch.html.
Note: Potomac River flow at Point of Rocks has dropped below the low-flow threshold of 2,000 cfs. When this occurs, per the Water Supply Coordination Agreement of 1982, CO-OP begins daily monitoring and reporting of Potomac flows and withdrawals on behalf of the CO-OP suppliers, Fairfax Water, Washington Aqueduct, and WSSC Water. Suppliers can review data at CO-OP's Data Portal at www.icprbcoop.org. Reports formatted in approved templates should be submitted by email to coop@icprb.org by 8:00 am for automated processing. Published monitoring reports are at http://icprbcoop.org/products/monitoring-reports.