Minor precipitation events have kept flows relatively steady over the past 5 days. The Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) quantitative precipitation forecast indicates that over 1/2 inch of rain will fall throughout the basin over the next 48 hours. MARFC's new ensemble forecasts, available at www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/, indicate that flow at Point of Rocks has a good chance of rising above 2000 cfs sometime in the next 7 days.
Isolated portions of the basin received approximately a half inch of
rain over the past 24 hours. There is a chance the western portion of
the basin could receive between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain over the next
48 hours. The National Weather Service (NWS) quantitative
precipitation forecasts (qpf) predict up to 0.5 inches of rain across
the basin over the next 5-day period.
Yesterday's scattered showers produced between a 0.01 to a 0.25 of an inch of rain for parts of the basin. Similar scattered showers are expected for today. The 48-hour forecast shows a chance of up to a 0.25 of an inch of rain across the basin. The National Weather Service (NWS) quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpf) indicates the basin could receive accumulated rainfall between 0.5 and 1.25 inches over the next 5 days.
Scattered showers producing less than 0.10 inches of rain occurred in
limited parts of the basin yesterday. The 48-hour forecast shows a
chance of up to 0.50 inches of rain across the basin. The National
Weather Service (NWS) quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpf)
indicates the basin could receive accumulated rainfall between 0.75
and 1.50 inches over the next 5 days.
Potomac River flows have been steadily decreasing. Current flows at Point of Rocks are at 1890 cfs. National Weather Service (NWS) quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpf) indicate that an accumulation of approximately 0.5 inch of rain is likely for most of the basin over the next 5 days. Some areas have slightly higher or lower qpf totals.
The basin received no rain over the past 24-hour period and is not expected to receive rain over the next 5-day period. However, given the higher flows, lower demands, and lower temperatures, we are discontinuing daily reporting on conditions. A summary of the weekend demands are included below.
The basin received between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain over the past 24-hour period. The heavier rainfall was seen in the central and
eastern portions of the basin. Zero to trace amounts of precipitation are forecasted to accumulate over the next 5 days.
Given the recent precipitation and low demands, we will not report on conditions over the weekend. A summary of the weekends flows and
demands, along with an assessment of conditions will be sent on Monday with the daily report.
Over the past 24 hours locations in the basin have seen between 0.25 and 1.5 inches of rain. An isolated area near Paw Paw received 2 inches. The 48-hour forecast predicts 0.5 inches of rain in the western portion of the basin and up to 0.75 inches in the metro area. The 5-day forecast shows a chance of up to 1 inch of accumulated rainfall across the basin.
Trace amounts of rain fell upstream of the metro area yesterday. Otherwise, the basin received no precipitation over the last 24 hours. The 48-hour forecast indicates a chance of up to 1 inch of rain in the southern Shenandoah area and between 1/2 and 3/4 of an inch across the rest of the basin. The 5-day forecast predicts accumulations of 1/2 an inch across the basin.
Point of Rocks flow has fallen below 2,000 cfs again. Over the last 24 hours, approximately 0.1 to 0.25 inches of rain fell over portions of the basin. The 48-hour forecast predicts up to a 0.25 inch of rain over the basin. The 5-day forecast predicts total accumulations of 0.25 to 0.9 inches of rain over the basin.